Does Arbitrage Betting Work?

An ‘Arb’ is when a Bettor gets the opportunity earn a profit regardless of the outcome, and to place bets on a sports event using different companies. When using the perfect tools sports Arbing (or ‘Arbitrage Betting’) is simple, procedural and potentially very lucrative.

There is no doubting that it functions .

I’ll explain all the pros and cons of sports arbing in this comprehensive Arbitrage Betting Guide. Then you can decide whether it is worth the effort…

The Basics Of Arbitrage Betting Explained

The definition of in the overall form of it, Arbitrage, is:

The simultaneous buying and selling of commodities in various markets so as to take advantage of prices for the asset.

In the case of sport Arbitrage the”commodity” is an outcome you bet for (“buy”) and simultaneously bet against (“sell”). The”prices” are the chances. Arbitrage bettors take advantage of the difference in those chances. It has nothing to do with making predictions.

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Notice that sport arbs are sometimes known as”sure bets”,”sure wins”, or even”safe bets”. Within this context, it means the same thing.

So How Do You Arb Bookmakers?

For example, if bookmaker has 10.0 for a horse and the exchange Lay odds are at 9.0 then this is an arb. A bettor has the chance to secure a guaranteed gain by employing the”Back high, Lay low” trading philosophy at that moment in time.
Help, I’m Lost! How can that Make a Gain?

Ok. If you are stuck then it is probably because you are not familiar with the Betfair betting exchange.

For Arbing you Want to’cancel out’ your Back bet in the Bookmaker by Laying on Betfair. By placing a Lay bet, you are betting against the outcome that you’ve Backed (at the Bookie), making sure that you don’t have any risk. The difference in the odds between the Bookmaker and Betfair means that you don’t merely break even — rather you guarantee a gain following the sports event settles.

That’s the arbitrage betting strategy. It is possible to win on Betfair the Bookmaker or at either, it makes no difference to you!
Best Betting Exchanges
How Much Can You Earn from Arbing?

The answer is determined by a variety of factors (which I address later in this post) — the largest being detection. If a Bookmaker finds that you’re arbing then they will limit or close your gaming account. This is referred to as gubbing (e.g.”I’ve been gubbed.”)

How long you’re able to arb for before being limited/closed determines just how much you’re able to earn. It is a question of turnover. If you’re able to place a large volume of stakes, then your profit will be large. A volume results in small profits. It’s as straightforward as that.
Arbs Sound Great So Far. Do they Happen Frequently?

Arbs are an everyday occurrence due to the volatile nature of markets. Bookmakers need to actively monitor all other chances from taking advantage of the odds by arbitrage 25,, so as to swiftly prevent punters.

Sport Arbing opportunities happen at Bookmakers based in any country — not just the United Kingdom.
How Do I Find Arbitrage Bets? Where Can I Find Arbs?

It’s impossible to find enough arbs manually (i.e without using an arb socket ) to make it a viable earner.

You will need to load their free Oddsmatcher up, if you decide to use OddsMonkey for finding arbs. Until you upgrade to Premium (which is just #17.99 /month) it’s limited — but it will still give you a sense for Arbing and Matched Betting.
This is what provides the risk-free arbitrage. As speed is of the essence but get there fast!
So What is Matched Betting? How Does It Relate to Sports Arbitrage Trading?

Matched Betting is the same procedure as arbing except that it:

Demands free bets. That's why some people today think of arbing as"matched betting without free stakes".
Doesn't require that the Bookmaker has better odds than Betfair. Similar or odds are sufficient.

Most people move onto arbitrage and start Matched Betting off.
An Example of Arbitrage Betting (Maths Included)

Let’s work through the last example using a #10 stake at the bookmaker. To simplify the calculations, I assume 0% commission paid on the market. Usually you’d pay 5%.

Here are the possible outcomes for the arbitrage bet:

Bookie: (#10 x 10.0) – #10 = +#90 profitExchange: -(#10 x 9.0) +#10 = -#80 lossNet result = +#10

Exchange Wins:

Bookie: -#10 loss Exchange: #10 winNet Impact = #0

What this achieves is great for the bettor: it is either make #10 or break even at #0.

But this approach does not guarantee a profit each time; if the exchange bet wins then it yields zero profit. The answer to this problem follows…
Calculating Guaranteed Profit From an Arb

To guarantee a gain from an arb the risk must be spread over the outcomes of this event. This is achieved by adjusting the Lay stake with a simultaneous equation… or simply using an online arbitrage betting calculator! Arbitrage Finders include calculators which tell you exactly what to bet.

Please skip over this whole section if you’re put off by the mathsy stuff. But if you are interested, or want to integrate the calculations into your spreadsheet, then here’s how to work out the Lay stake.

Primarily you need to consider:

If the Bookie bet wins, then the exchange bet loses.
If the Exchange bet wins, the Bookie bet loses.

So what you need is a basic formula which combines the two above scenarios and attempts to find the value”LayStake”, such that both situations will always yield the same result:
Produce the unknown factor”LayStake”:

(BookieBetWins BookiePNL) – ((ExchangeOdds-1) x LayStake) = (ExchangeBetWins BookiePNL) + (LayStake)

Using the figures from my previous example:

BookieBetWins BookiePNL = #90
ExchangeOdds = 9.0
ExchangeBetWins BookiePNL = -#10

Note:”ExchangeOdds-1″ works out the Betting Exchange loss without needing to subtract the LayStake individually (as I have done previously). This simplifies the formula a bit.

(#90) – 8.0(LayStake) = (-#10) + (LayStake)

Rearranged & Simplified:

90 – 8(LayStake) = -#10 + LayStake#100 = 9(LayStake)LayStake = 100/9 = #11.11

OK, that’s enough of the algebra.

Now the risk is spread across both outcomes, albeit a slight rounding difference of #0.01.